Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/10/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/12 AT 0600 UTC : 24.8S / 85.2E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 24.5S/84.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 24.0S/82.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 23.3S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 23.1S/81.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/14 18 UTC: 23.7S/80.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/15 06 UTC: 24.0S/79.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.5+ SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND THERE IS NO MORE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HONDO IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY TO RECURVE WESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 48 HOURS, HONDO IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS AGAIN. OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 25 TO 26 DEGREES CELCIUS, SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BUT STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE ALL RANGES OF THIS FORECAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO 1541Z ASCAT SWATH.