Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 0000 UTC : 18.1S / 59.8E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 18.5S/59.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 19.3S/58.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 20.5S/57.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 21.6S/56.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 23.3S/55.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 26.1S/52.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF HONDO HAS CAME BACK NEAR MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED. MAIN THUNDERSTROM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE MOMENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TODAY. DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO TAU 72. ALTOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK AND IS NOT FORECASTED TO RE-INTENSIFY (MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 1005HPA), IT SHOULD GENERATE VERY DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS ON THE 22 AND REUNION ISLAND THE 23 (DEGRADATION THE NIGHT BEFORE). AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.