Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 1200 UTC : 18.0S / 59.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 18.4S/59.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 19.0S/58.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/57.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 23.7S/52.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0. THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED MORE EASTWARDS, WITH THE NOAA18 10 UTC. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER WELL DEFINED. MAIN THUNDERSTROM ACTIVITY IS PRESENT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRDLE FOR THE MOMENT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT HAS CLEARLY SLOWNAED DOWN, AND SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS TODAY. DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT, STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THIS RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD REACH NEAR GALE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ALTOUGH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK AND IS NOT FORECASTED TO RE-INTENSIFY A LOT, IT SHOULD GENERATE VERY DISTURBED WEATHER OVER MAURITIUS ON THE 22 AND REUNION ISLAND THE 23 (DEGRADATION THE NIGHT BEFORE). BEYONG TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO DEFINITIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.