Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 59.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 020 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 06 UTC: 18.7S/59.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/22 18 UTC: 19.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 20.1S/57.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 22.8S/53.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 24.0S/51.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 EX-HONDO IS QUASI-STATIONNARY ABOUT 10 HOURS AGO. THIS AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (1425Z WINDSAT AND 1449Z SSMI F13) SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN SINCE 1100Z BUT SINCE 1600Z, THIS CURVED BAND HAS HOWEVER SCATTERED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 55E. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AGAIN SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES WITHIN THE NIGHT. IT COULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY BUT INTENSITY FORECASTING REMAINS DELICATE.