Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 170 SO: 140 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 18.9S/59.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/58.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 21.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.6S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.1S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 25.9S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5 EX-HONDO IS NOW SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DIFFICULT IN THE BORDER OF A QUICK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR LINE EXISTING WEST OF 57E. THE RIDGE EFFECT IN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEAKENING THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED ACCELERATING ON THIS SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, SO SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT FORECASTING OF INTENSITY REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 48 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNDERGOING AN INFORCING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND A LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL.