Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 0600 UTC : 18.6S / 59.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 035 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 035 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/22 18 UTC: 19.5S/58.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 20.6S/57.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5S/55.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 23.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 24.6S/50.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 26.6S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ AND CI=2.5 METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER AND A BROKEN CURVED BAND. EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY RACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM COULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY BUT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS DELICATE. BEYOND 36 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.