Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 1200 UTC : 18.9S / 59.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 020 SE: 170 SO: 120 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 19.7S/57.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.9S/55.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.4S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 26.4S/49.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 28.7S/49.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT, INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE DELICATE. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.