Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 58.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 27 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/23 06 UTC: 20.2S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.9S/54.9E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 23.7S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 26.1S/50.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 27.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=020KT , FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/25 18 UTC: 29.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=015KT , FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.0+ DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS REBUILDING NEAR THE CENTER SINCE SOME HOURS, BUT A NORTHEASTERLY CONSTAINTE SHOWN BY A CIRRUS ARCUS IN THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD LIMITE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO LESS FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.