Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 20.9S/56.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.7S/54.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 25.1S/51.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 28.3S/50.1E FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 31.0S/50.9E FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 30.8S/54.3E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS REBUILDING NEAR THE CENTER DURING LAST HOURS. EX-HONDO HAS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO LESS FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.