Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 56.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/23 18 UTC: 21.4S/54.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 23.4S/52.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 26.9S/50.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 30.4S/50.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/25 18 UTC: 31.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/26 06 UTC: 31.0S/57.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 EX-HONDO HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS AT 12 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM HAS SHOWN A BETTER ORGANIZATION BOTH ON MICROWAVE AND RADAR (LA REUNION) IMAGERY WITHA WELL DEFINED LLCC. IT HAS PASSED AT 20 KM NORTH OF MAURITIUS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMAL GUST IN THE 90 KM/H RANGE AND BRIEFLY 30 KT AVERAGE WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA, SYSTEM IS STILL CLASSIFIED WITH WINDS AT 30 KT. LOCALLY 35 KT WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT. TRACK IS NOW ON A MORE SPEEDY WESTWARDS COMPONENT SINCE THE PASSAGE NEAR MAURITIUS, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION. IT SHOULD PASS LATER TODAY OVER OR JUST NORTH OF REUNION ISLAND. EX-HONDO REMAINS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN NEUTRAL TO LESS FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDSHEAR AND TRACK OVER A WEAK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE RIDGE EFFECT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE EX-HONDO IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.