Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 55.8E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 22.1S/53.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.8S/51.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 28.3S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 30.9S/51.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 31.6S/53.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/26 12 UTC: 31.7S/57.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ CI=2.5 AFTER THE WESTWARDS JOG OF THIS MORNING, EX-HONDO IS NOW TRACKING ON A MORE WESTSOUTWESTWARDS MOTION AT 09 KNOTS. OVERALL CONFIGURATION ON RADAR IMAGERY OF LA REUNION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE 05 TU, WITH AN LLCC BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE. ON VISIBLE IMAGERY, AN ARC OF CIRRUS IS MATERIALIZING EAST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTING OF A STRENGHENING EASTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON THIS DATA, SYSTEM IS STILL CLASSIFIED WITH WINDS AT 30 KT. EX-HONDO REMAINS A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUHWEST, WITH A RATHER FAST MOTION. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGHEN AND SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVLY ENTER INTO COOLER SST. SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECASTED.