Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 55.2E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/24 06 UTC: 23.8S/53.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 26.4S/51.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 29.2S/50.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/25 18 UTC: 31.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/26 06 UTC: 32.4S/56.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/26 18 UTC: 31.8S/59.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+ CI=2.5- ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AN ARC OF CIRRUS IS MATERIALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ARC SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR. LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST (F14 23/1334Z) THEN IN THE SOUTH (F15 23/1557Z) OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP CONVECTION. EX-HONDO HAS STILL A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ENTER INTO COOLER SSTS. SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECASTED.