Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 47/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 54.5E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 24.6S/52.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 27.1S/51.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 29.5S/50.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 31.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/26 12 UTC: 32.2S/54.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/27 00 UTC: 31.7S/56.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ CI=2.0 LL CIRCULATION IS NOW POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED. THE ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND FLARING. EX-HONDO HAS STILL A SMALL SIZE AND QUICKLY REACTS TO THE ENVIRONMENT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ENTER INTO COOLER SSTS, INHIBATING ANY REINTENSIFICATION. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT.