Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : 23.5S / 53.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/24 18 UTC: 25.7S/51.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/25 06 UTC: 28.5S/51.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/25 18 UTC: 30.3S/51.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/26 06 UTC: 31.2S/53.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/26 18 UTC: 31.1S/55.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/27 06 UTC: 30.6S/56.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 AFTER HAVING TRACKED OVER REUNION ISLAND AND ITS MOUNTAINS, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND DIZORGANIZED. IT HAS LIGHLY RE-ORGANIZED OVER SEAS AND THE LLCC IS CLEARLY DEFINED AND EVIDENCED OVER MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SEE SSMI 0311Z IN 37V GHZ CHANNEL). THE ASSOCIATED RESIDUAL CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND FLARING AND THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVELS (WEAK DIVERGENCE AND FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) AND IN LOW LEVEL ARE NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE, AND THIS SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOON OVER SEAS WHOSE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAT 26.5 CELSIUS DEGREES (SOUTH OF 24SOUTH), INHIBATING ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK.