Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/10/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 27.7S/51.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 30.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/26 00 UTC: 31.1S/53.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/26 12 UTC: 31.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/27 00 UTC: 31.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/27 12 UTC: 30.7S/59.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0- AND CI=2.0 25/30KT WINDS COULD PERSIST WHERE THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IS THE STRONGEST (SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOMENT, TURNING TO THE SOUTH THEN THE SOUTHWEST AT MEDIUM RANGE) AFTER HAVING TRACKED OVER REUNION ISLAND , THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER SEAS WHOSE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAT 26.5 CELSIUS DEGREES, INHIBATING ANY RE-INTESIFICATION (MOREOVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS ARE NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE - POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, TEMPORARILLY INCREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHSOUHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN CURVE OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST, FILLING UP SLOWLY, BUT WHITHOUT EVACUATING POLEWARDS. IT SHOULD GO UP AT MEDIUM RANGE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A FOLLOWING SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. JAMMED BETWEEN THOSE TWO RIDGES, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD BE ISOLATED NEAR BY 30S/60E ON THE 28. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS BETWEEN A MEAN OF AMERICANS MODELS AND ECMWF OF THE 24/00. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED.