Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 2.A POSITION 2008/02/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 61.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 180 SO: 100 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/07 18 UTC: 13.9S/63.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/08 06 UTC: 14.6S/64.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/08 18 UTC: 15.3S/66.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/09 06 UTC: 16.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/02/09 18 UTC: 16.7S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/02/10 06 UTC: 17.2S/66.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THIS SYSTEM, FORMED SINCE A FEW DAYS IN THE VINCINITY OF AGALEGA, HAS STRENGHEN LAST NIGHT. A QUICKSCAT PASS AT 01:54Z SHOWS UNFLAGED WINDS AT 30 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATION GIVE CI AT 2.5. SO IT IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED AS A CUT-OFF LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ENHENCED POLEWARDS DIVERGENCE. MOTION IS STEERED BY THE THICK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS FLOW GENERATED BY THE MID TROPOSPHERIC EQUATORIAL RIDGE. SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE SAME DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGHEN NEAR 70E, STEERING FLOW SHOULD BEEN WEAKER RESULTING ON GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.