Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 64.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 240 SE: 110 SO: 090 NO: 240 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 15.1S/64.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 15.3S/64.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 15.4S/64.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 15.4S/63.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 15.4S/62.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 15.4S/61.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5+ AFTER SLOWLY DRIFTING GLOBALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS SINCE 24 HOURS, IVAN HAS STOPPED AGAIN AND IS QUASI-STATIONNARY. THE MAJORITY OF NWP MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE WESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. CHRONOLOGY REMAINS HOWEVER UNCERTAINLY, SOME NWP FORECAST IT DURING THE 02/12. WHEN IVAN WILL TRACK WESTWARDS , IT COULD ALSO INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (FOR THE BOTH SIDES) AND ALSO A FAVOURABLE UPPER LEVEL SITUATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.