Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/10 AT 1800 UTC : 14.6S / 65.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 230 SE: 100 SO: 090 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.4S/65.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.3S/65.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.2S/64.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.2S/64.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.3S/63.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5+ THE SYSTEME IS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS ONCE MORE. IT UNDERGOES A LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD RECURVE WESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY GRADUALLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (FOR THE BOTH SIDES) AND ALSO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SITUATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS MADE ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF NUMERICAL MODELS, AND IS CLOSE TO ECMWF FORECAST. NWP MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT.