Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/11/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 0000 UTC : 14.4S / 65.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 230 SE: 100 SO: 090 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 14.3S/65.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 14.3S/64.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 14.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 14.7S/63.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 15.0S/62.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 15.6S/61.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0- THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING AROUND THE LLCC -SEE EIR MÙETEOSAT AND AQUA AT 2057Z). IT SHOULD RECURVE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING FLOW OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES FAR TO THE SOUTH. IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY GRADUALLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (FOR THE BOTH SIDES) AND ALSO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SITUATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS MADE ACCORDING TO A CONSENSUS OF NWP MODELS, WHICH REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT.