Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 0600 UTC : 14.5S / 65.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/11 18 UTC: 14.5S/65.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.5S/65.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.3S/65.4E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.1S/65.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.2S/65.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 14.4S/65.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ THE SYSTEM IS INTESIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, AN EYE IS NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO GOING ON TRACK VERY SLOWLY GGLOBALLY NORTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 36 HOURS, THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALWAYS SLOWLY. IVAN IS UNDERGOING TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIGDE THAT REMAINS THE DOMMINANT STEERING FLOW FOR THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY GRADUALLY WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (FOR THE BOTH SIDES) AND ALSO A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SITUATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.