Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/11/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/11 AT 1800 UTC : 14.2S / 64.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/12 06 UTC: 14.0S/64.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/12 18 UTC: 14.0S/64.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/13 06 UTC: 14.0S/63.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/13 18 UTC: 14.2S/62.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/14 06 UTC: 14.4S/61.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2008/02/14 18 UTC: 15.2S/60.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5- IVAN REMAINS UNEDR INFLUENCE OF TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIGDE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT AS THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE SUNDAY EVENING , ITS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WEAKS DUE TO SEA WATER MIXED. LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (1352Z SSMI AND 1600Z SSMIS) REVALS A LOW LEVEL CENTER (37V) SLIGHT DEPHASED SOUTHWARDS COMPARE TO THE UPPER LEVEL OBVIOUS ONE (85H). THIS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SLOWLY WESTWARDS. BEYOND 24 HOURS, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO ACCELERATE ON THIS WESTWARDS TRACK IL COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY.