Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/11/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/12 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 64.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 14.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/13 00 UTC: 14.1S/63.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/02/13 12 UTC: 14.1S/61.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 14.1S/60.9E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 15.0S/59.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 15.7S/57.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=4.5- IVAN REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF TWO COMPETING STEERING FLOWS; SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH AND EQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL RIGDE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT AS THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE SUNDAY EVENING , ITS ENERGETIC POTENTIAL WEAKS DUE TO MIXED SEA WATER. SINCE 6 HOURS, SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING HOWEVER SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATING BEYOND. IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY. BEYOND 48 HOURS, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO RECURVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWESTWARDS. TRMM 2237Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY DON'T PERMIT TO CONFIRM SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR REVEALED BY 1352Z SSMI AND 1600Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY.