Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/11/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7S / 61.4E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 160 SO: 250 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/14 00 UTC: 13.8S/59.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 14.0S/58.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 14.5S/56.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: 15.0S/55.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 15.5S/54.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.0S/54.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0 IVAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARDS AT 8 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS TRYING TO REBUILT OVER THE LLCC. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM 0724Z) STILL DISPLAY A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL VORTEX. WINDS ARE MAINTAINED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMING THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. IT SHOULD REGULARLY INTENSIFY WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONEMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (LESS EASTERLY SHEAR) AND FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. DURING FRIDAY 15, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO RECURVE GRADUALLY ON A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK AS THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS BUILDING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLIGHTY DECREASE BY THAT TIME. PRESENT GUIDANCE IS MORE TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN MODELS.