Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/11/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 0000 UTC : 13.3S / 60.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 180 SO: 150 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/14 12 UTC: 13.8S/58.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 14.3S/56.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: 14.7S/55.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 15.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 15.9S/54.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5S/53.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, TRMM 13/2225Z SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION STILL BARELY CONSOLIDATES, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES AN EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING - QUICKER BEYOND TAU 36H -WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WEAKER EASTERLY SHEAR) AND WEST OF 60E, FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ON FRIDAY 15, IVAN IS FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY HAVE A POLEWARD TURN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SPEED MOVEMENT SHOULD THEN DECREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN MODELS.