Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/11/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/14 AT 1200 UTC : 13.8S / 58.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 983 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/15 00 UTC: 14.5S/56.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/02/15 12 UTC: 15.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/02/16 00 UTC: 15.7S/54.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.1S/53.3E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 16.5S/52.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T==3.5- AND CI=3.5 LATEST METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW WRAPING CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WHITH A CURVED BAND PATTERN. IT IS STILL POORLY CONSOLIDATED AND THE LLCC IS AT SOME MOMENT PARTIALLY EXPOSED (SEE VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 1000Z). METOP ASCAT DATA AT 0530Z SHOWS, AND THE EDGE OT ITS SWATH, SUGGEST WEAKER EXTENSION OF WINDS THAN OVER QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0210Z. ESTIMATED EXTENTION IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THOSE DATA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. IT SHOULD THEN KEEP ON REGULARLY INTENSIFYING - QUICKER BEYOND TAU 36H -WITHIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (WEAKER EASTERLY SHEAR) AND WEST OF 60E, FAR FROM THE AREA OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ECMWF DOESN'T FORECAST ANYMORE THE TRACK MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESWARDS BEYOND THE 17. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND A CONSENSUS OF AMERICAN MODELS.