Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/11/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/16 AT 0000 UTC : 16.4S / 53.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/16 12 UTC: 16.8S/52.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 17.3S/50.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.7S/49.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.0S/48.6E OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.5S/47.9E OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.2S/47.6E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.5+ IVAN HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AT 8 KT DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS INTESIFYING, WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE OF 30 NM DIAMETER IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL (SEE WINDSAT AT 1431Z), WHICH EXTENDS PROGRESSIVLY TO UPPER LEVEL (SEE IR METEOSAT IMAGERY AT 1800Z). THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED OVER TROMELIN ISLAND AT 1500Z, WHERE IT HAS BEEN RECORDED 969,2HPA AT 1500Z. MAX SURFACE WINDS (10 MIN AVERAGE) HAVE BEEN MEASURED DURING THE FIRST PASS OF THE EYE WALL AT 1300Z (SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 52KT, GUSTS 80KT). THE ISLAND HAS REMAINED LESS THAN 3 HOURS IN A RATHER QUITE WINDS AREA (WITH WEAKER RAINFALLS). WE DON'T HAVE WINDS DATA ANYMORE AFTER THE SECOND EYEWALL PASS. 1200Z NWP MODEL RUNS FORECAST A TRACK FOR A WESTARD OR SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER ITS LANDFALL, SOME MAKE IT CURVE SOUTHWARDS, WILL OTHER (ECMWF FOR INSTANCE) DO ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, CROSSING THE ISLAND. IVAN SHOULD GO ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR). THIS FORECAST IS A MEAN OF ECMWF, ITS ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM SOLUTIONS (EPS), AND A SONSENSUS OF US MODELS (CONW) IVAN IS A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THANKS TO 1742Z ASCAT METOP SWATH.