Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/11/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/16 AT 0600 UTC : 16.2S / 52.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/16 18 UTC: 16.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/17 06 UTC: 17.5S/50.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2008/02/17 18 UTC: 18.5S/48.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/18 06 UTC: 19.3S/48.0E OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 20.0S/47.4E OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 20.6S/46.8E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.0- IVAN HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARDS DURING THE 6 LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS INTESIFYING, WITH AN EYE OF 30 NM DIAMETER CONSOLIDATING.IT IS EXPECTED TO INCURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE NEXT HOURS TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS.IVAN IS A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. WINDS FORCE OVER TROMELIN ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PROGRESSIVELY, THE ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE MORE ACTIVE MASSES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED THANKS TO 03Z QUIKSCAT SWATH. IVAN SHOULD GO ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD KEEP ON REGULARY INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR).