Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 38/11/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/16 AT 1200 UTC : 16.5S / 51.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 941 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1000 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/17 00 UTC: 17.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.6S/49.4E OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.3S/48.3E OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 19.2S/47.4E OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.9S/46.7E OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 20.8S/46.4E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5 IVAN IS INTESIFYING, WITH AN EYE OF 30 NM DIAMETER CONSOLIDATING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR). IT IS EXPECTED TO INCURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE NEXT HOURS, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS. IVAN IS A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO LAND FALL IN THE VINICITY OF TAMATAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.