Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/11/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/16 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 51.1E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/17 06 UTC: 17.1S/49.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/02/17 18 UTC: 17.6S/48.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/02/18 06 UTC: 18.4S/46.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 18.8S/45.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 19.7S/45.6E, MAX WIND=015KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/02/19 18 UTC: 21.1S/44.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0- AND CI=6.0- IVAN IS INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY SINCE 48 HOURS WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE 1200Z AND 1330Z METEOSAT7 ENHANCED INFRARED SHOWS PONCTUALLY A T-NUMBER AT 6.5, LARGE EYE (MORE THAN 45NM DIAMETER ON INFRARED IMAGERY) BETWEEN 1400Z AND 1530Z DIDN'T ALLOW MAKING POSITIVE ADJUSTMENT ANYMORE. FINAL T-NUMBER IS THEREFORE AN AVERAGE BETWEEN 1200Z AND 1800Z. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL NEAR THE HARBOR CITY OF TAMATAVE (A LITTLE BIT IN ITS NORTH) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z AND 0900Z WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 155 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE BEFORE 0300Z.