Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/11/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/17 12 UTC: 17.5S/49.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 18.2S/47.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9S/46.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.5S/45.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 20.6S/44.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 21.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+ AND CI=6.0- IVAN IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL IN THE NORTH OF THE HARBOR CITY OF TAMATAVE (NEAR FENOARIVO-ATSINANANA) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z AND 0900Z WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 155 KT. BECAUSE THE EYE IS LARGE (ABOUT 40 NM DIAMETER), THE RATHER QUITE PERIOD BETWEEN THE TWO STRIKES OF STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE UP TO 2 HOURS LONG FOR THE AREA WHICH ARE CROSSED BY THE LARGEST DIAMETER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND THEN HOURS AFTER HOURS THE ALL COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND. AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEAKENING RAPIDLY BUT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SOULD OCCUR OVER SEA BETWEEN 18S AND 22S UP TO 100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.