Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/11/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 0600 UTC : 17.2S / 49.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 450 SO: 150 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/17 18 UTC: 17.7S/48.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/02/18 06 UTC: 18.4S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 19.2S/45.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 20.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/19 18 UTC: 20.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/02/20 06 UTC: 20.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 AND CI=5.5+ IVAN HAS REACHED SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AROUND 0200Z AND KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE EYEWALL HAS REACHED THE MALAGASY EASTERN COAST AROUND 0400Z AND THE CENTRE SHOULD LANDFALL NORTH OF FANOARIVO -NORTH OF TAMATAVE - WITHIN AN HOUR. THE EYE IS RATHER LARGE (ABOUT 35 NM DIAMETER). HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD CONCERN THE COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND. AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN BUT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER WATER BETWEEN 16S AND 20S UP TO 100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.