Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 42/11/20072008 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 48.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/18 00 UTC: 17.8S/47.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/02/18 12 UTC: 18.5S/45.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 19.5S/44.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 19.8S/44.2E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 20.2S/43.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/02/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/43.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN HAS MADE A LANDFALL ABOUT 100 KN NORTH OF TOAMASINA, IN THE NORTHERN VICINITY OF FENOARIVAO CITY, AT 0615Z. IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UP TO TAU 36/48H. BEYOND, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SLOW DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES RATHER "WEAK". AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, BUT THE TIMING IS DIFFERENT ABOUT THE SYSTEM BEING BACK OVER WATER.