Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/11/20072008 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/18 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 46.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/18 18 UTC: 19.4S/44.8E OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/02/19 06 UTC: 20.0S/44.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/19 18 UTC: 20.6S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/20 06 UTC: 21.0S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/02/20 18 UTC: 21.2S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/02/21 06 UTC: 21.4S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS AT 10 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS WELL MARQUED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE MONSOON FLOW (144 MM OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AT MAJUNGA - 0300 UTC SYNOP) SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A RATHER "WEAK" ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT, MOST OF THE MODELS LEAVE THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COSAST OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ... IF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO PROGRESSIVE REINTENSIFICTION OVER THE WARM SST OF THE CHANEL, FORECAST INTENSITY BRING THE SYSTEM ONLY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AS IT IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD LATER.