Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/11/20072008 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/18 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 45.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/19 00 UTC: 21.0S/44.2E OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/02/19 12 UTC: 22.5S/43.2E, MAX WIND=015KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/02/20 00 UTC: 22.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/20 12 UTC: 21.6S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/21 00 UTC: 21.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 20.7S/41.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LATEST VISIBLE ANIMATIONS AND SURFACE DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED EAST OF MORONDAVA (998.6 HPA 09 UTC SYNOP). IVAN HAS TRACKED SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS AT 12 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS WELL MARQUED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AREA WITH THE MONSOON FLOW. ON ITS MORE POLEWARDS MOVEMENT, THERE IS NOW SOME INCERTITUDE IN THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. PRESENT GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ON THE LEFT (TO THE EAST) ACCORDING TO THE LAST NWP 00Z RUN. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS, SYSTEM SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A RATHER "WEAK" ENVIRONMENT (A MID-LAT TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTHWARD) AND SHOULD MOVE WITH A SLOWER MOTION. BEYOND TAU 48 HOURS, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TAKING PLACE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL AND SHOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT BUT STILL AT LOW SPPED. IN FACT, MOST OF THE MODELS LEAVE THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ... LAST REGULAR ADVISORY. IT WILL BE REISSUED WHEN REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.