Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 47/11/20072008 1.A FILLING DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/21 AT 0000 UTC : 24.0S / 42.0E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/21 12 UTC: 23.7S/41.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2008/02/22 00 UTC: 23.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/02/22 12 UTC: 23.4S/40.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 23.7S/40.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 24.4S/39.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 25.4S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF IVAN IS WIDE, TOTALLY EXPOSED (ELONGATED FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH), OF A WEAK INTENSITY, GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH. THIS IS NOT A TROPICAL LOW STRUCTURE. MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS LOW, BUT ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE FACT THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ARE ALSO LOW OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WIDE CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION, WHITHOUT DEEPENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.