Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/11/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11 (EX-IVAN) 2.A POSITION 2008/02/22 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8S / 41.6E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/02/23 00 UTC: 21.5S/41.1E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2008/02/23 12 UTC: 23.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2008/02/24 00 UTC: 23.5S/39.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/02/24 12 UTC: 23.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=015KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/02/25 00 UTC: 24.7S/39.4E, MAX WIND=010KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/02/25 12 UTC: 24.7S/38.0E, MAX WIND=010KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN'S RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS BROAD, EXPOSED AND POORLY DEFINED. THE STRUCTURE IS NO LONGER TROPICAL. WINDS ARE WEAK CLOSE TO THE CENTRE AND STRONGER WITHIN A BELT LOCATED BETWEEN 100 MN AND 300 MN FROM THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS LOW, BUT ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK DUE TO RATHER LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURES OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THIS BROAD CIRCULATION IS FORECASTTO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TRACKING, WHITHOUT DEEPENING AS A PERSISTANT NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR DOES NOT ALLOW TROPICAL REINTENSIFICATION. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM THAT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED.