Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 2.A POSITION 2008/03/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.7S / 54.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/05 06 UTC: 12.2S/52.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/05 18 UTC: 12.8S/49.7E OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/03/06 06 UTC: 13.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 14.2S/45.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 15.0S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 16.0S/42.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- LLCC IS BETTER DEFINED ON THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (WINDSAT 04/1417Z, F16 04/1626Z) AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS REBUILT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONEMENT IS FAIRLY EASTERLY SHEARED AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. POTENTIEL OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.