Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 12 2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 52.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/05 12 UTC: 12.6S/50.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/03/06 00 UTC: 13.1S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 13.7S/46.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 14.3S/44.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 15.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 15.7S/41.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ LLCC IS RATHER WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM 04/2149Z) AND REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONEMENT IS FAIRLY EASTERLY SHEARED - BUT THE WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE - AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. POTENTIEL OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.