Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1S / 51.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/05 18 UTC: 12.6S/49.1E OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/03/06 06 UTC: 13.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 14.1S/44.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.5S/43.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 14.9S/42.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 LLCC IS RATHER WELL DEFINED ON THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (TRMM 04/2149Z, SSMI 05/0142Z AND 0355Z, AND AMSU-B 05/0103), WITH THE MAIN PART OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONEMENT IS MODERATLY EASTERLY SHEARED - BUT THE WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE - AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES). EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. POTENTIEL OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS MODERATE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL TONIGHT. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER HAVING CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.