Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 12.0S / 50.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/06 00 UTC: 12.2S/48.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 12.8S/46.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 13.4S/45.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 13.9S/43.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 14.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 14.4S/41.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- LLCC IS RATHER WELL DEFINED. EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED, AND THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE DURING LAST HOURS, WITH A NICE CURVED BAND PATTERB. FOR THIS SMALL SYSME, THE ASSOCIATED MSLP IS HIGHER THAN FOT SUCH AN INTENSITY CLASSICAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES), BUT EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER HAVING CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.