Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/05 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 50.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/06 06 UTC: 12.5S/47.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.3S/45.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 13.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.1S/42.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 14.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 15.4S/40.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- JOKWE HAS MOVED WESTWARDS AT 8 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI PASS AT 1507Z AND 1613Z) SUGGEST THAT JOKWE IS STRENGHENING WITH A WARM SPOT ON THE 85GHZ IMAGERY. THEREFORE, JOKWE IS UPGRADED ON THE HIGHER LEVEL OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH WINDS AT 45 KT. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSS THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR NEAR DIEGO SUAREZ AND JOKWE COULD BE A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME LATER TONIGHT. FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM, THE ASSOCIATED MSLP IS HIGHER THAN FOR SUCH AN INTENSITY CLASSICAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES), BUT EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. JOKWE SHOULD BE AROUND TAU 24 NEAR MAYOTTE ISLAND. AFTER HAVING CROSSED THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR AND COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO.