Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 49.2E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/06 12 UTC: 12.6S/47.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 13.1S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 13.6S/43.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 14.1S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 15.1S/41.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 16.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0+ CI=3.5- JOKWE HAS SLOW DOWN DURING THE NIGHT. IT HAS MOVED WESTWARDS AT 6 KT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. IT HAS MADE LANDFALL SINCE 23:00 UTC OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR NEAR DIEGO-SUAREZ. HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND OVERALL STRUCTURE IS LESS DEFINED DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INTENSIFICATION COULD BE TEMPORARELY STOPPED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR THIS SMALL SYSTEM, THE ASSOCIATED MSLP IS HIGHER THAN FOR SUCH AN INTENSITY CLASSICAL SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS REMAINS RATHER GOOD; UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD, SEA POTENTIAL HEAT IS SUFFICIENT (SST AT MORE THAN 27,5 CELSIUS DEGREES), THERE IS ONLY EQUATORWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK. THIS SYTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, A MID LAT TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND GIVE A MORE POLEWARDS MOTION TO THE SYSTEM. WITH A SLOWER MOTION, THE CPA TO MAYOTTE ISLAND HAS BEEN DELAYED.