Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/12/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2S / 48.0E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 080 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/06 18 UTC: 13.8S/46.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 14.1S/44.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 14.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/42.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.3S/41.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.5S/41.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5+ AND CI=3.0 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISORGANIZED WITHIN THE CROSS OVER NORTHERN MALAGASY RELIEF AND SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. MICRO-WAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER THAT THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS KEPT VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SYSTEM COULD THEREFORE GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ISLAND (PROBABLY LESS THAN 80 NM OFFSHORE) NEXT NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEREAFTER.