Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 46.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/07 00 UTC: 14.3S/44.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 14.7S/42.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 15.2S/41.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 15.7S/40.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 17.3S/39.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 19.3S/39.9E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=4.5- THIS LITTLE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINED VERY WELL DEFINED DESPITE THE CROSS OVER NORTHERN MALAGASY RELIEF LAST NIGHT AND ALSO WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOWS A IRREGULAR EYE SINCE 0730Z. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ISLAND (PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 100 KM OFFSHORE ) NEXT NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS ALONG MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE THEREAFTER. A LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IS HOWEVER POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. UNDERGOING A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE (CONFIRMED NY MEASURE DURING THE CROSS NEAR DIEGO AND NOSY-BE STATIONS)