Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/06 AT 1800 UTC : 14.2S / 46.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/07 06 UTC: 14.9S/44.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 15.7S/42.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 16.4S/40.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 17.4S/40.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 18.4S/39.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 19.4S/39.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5- THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS BARELY A CYCLONE, WITH A SMALL EYE (15NM DIAMETER), AND A POOR EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS AND CENTRAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (ERODATED TO THE WEST AND NOT VERY COLD). NEVERTHELESS, ULTRA-PERIPHERIC BANDS CAN GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS FAR FROM THE CENTER (AS NOW, BETWEEN BESSALAMPY AND MORONDAVE). JOKWE SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTHSOUTHEAST THE CLOSEST OF MAYOTTE ISLAND AT NEAR 150KM AT 2000 Z. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS OFFSHORE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE AFTER. REMAINING IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.