Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 0000 UTC : 14.7S / 44.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/07 12 UTC: 15.5S/42.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 16.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 17.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 18.2S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 19.0S/39.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/39.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- AND CI=4.0+ VERY REACTIVE TO ITS ENVIRONMENT, THIS SMALL SYSTEM HAS RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. ITS SMALL EYE HAS DISEAPPRED DURING LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS OFFSHORE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE AFTER. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.