Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/12/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 0600 UTC : 14.6S / 43.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/07 18 UTC: 15.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 15.5S/40.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.2S/40.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.2S/39.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 18.2S/38.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 19.2S/37.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0- AND CI=4.0+ THIS SMALL SYSTEM REACTS QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWARDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.