Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/12/20072008 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 1200 UTC : 14.4S / 42.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 070 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 00 UTC: 14.8S/41.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 16.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 17.0S/38.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 18.1S/38.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.1S/37.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 20.0S/37.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5- AND CI=4.5- MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE. THIS SMALL SYSTEM REACTS QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATION OF INTENSITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE.