Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/12/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 42.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 06 UTC: 15.4S/40.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.4S/39.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.5S/38.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 18.6S/37.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/37.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.8S/37.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5+ AND CI=5.5+ DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, JOKWE HAS CAME AGAIN IN A NEW RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASIS AND HAS REACHED INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THIS INTENSE MIDGET CYCLONE WITH A TINY EYE LESS THAN 10 NM IN DIAMETER REACTS VERY QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATIONS OF INTENSITY. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE. LANDFALL ON MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY 08 MORNING BETWEEN THE CITY OF NACALA AND ANGOCHE. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.