Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/12/20072008 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 41.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 16.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 17.0S/38.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 18.3S/38.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/38.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 20.7S/38.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 21.6S/37.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=6.0+ AND CI=6.0+ JOKWE KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING BUT WILL PROBABLY SOON INTERACT WITH CONTINENTAL SURFACE. THIS INTENSE MIDGET CYCLONE WITH A TINY EYE (PIN POINT EYE) LESS THAN 10 NM IN DIAMETER REACTS VERY QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATIONS OF INTENSITY. LANDFALL ON MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE IS EXPECTED THIS SATURDAY BETWEEN 05 AND 09UTC BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF MOCAMBIQUE AND THE CITY OF ANGOCHE. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT COMES BACK OVERSEA ON A WEAK STAGE BUT WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.